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When Vladimir Putin traveled to the South Asian nation four years ago, the international order looked entirely distinct. The brief visit, limited by the pandemic, focused on talks on economic and military ties between the two nations.

Months later, the large-scale military offensive of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Additionally, that period preceded a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by inflammatory rhetoric and the imposition of substantial import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a rejection of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The summit occurs at a crucial time. President Putin arrives following rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this engagement is its simple happening," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a movement toward something resembling normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are even higher. The country navigates a challenging international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when European ambassadors released a public commentary criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a sharp response from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Soviet period and is firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary arms provider. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a recent shift.

For years, Western nations ignored India's large-scale buying of discounted Russian oil. Yet, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, accusations mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," explained a strategic analyst. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China continues to be the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to avoid an excessively close bond between its adversary and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also accelerated India's drive to diversify its military imports, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in recent years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but avoid overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil imports remains pivotal. Although the Indian government has vowed to continue buying Russian oil, new sanctions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has agreed to boost imports of American oil and gas.

A Russian official admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would continue without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned mainly through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader can speak to both sides, the nation does not possess the necessary leverage to alter the course of the conflict," the analyst noted. "Aside from encouraging talks, its capacity to effect change is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by national interest in a rapidly changing world.